Profits and the Australian economy – not bad!

Published: September 4, 2014

The slowdown in June quarter GDP growth to just 0.5% quarter on quarter, or just 2% on a US style annualised basis, against the backdrop of weak commodity prices, the end of the mining investment boom and rising unemployment may add to consternation regarding the Australian economic outlook. And yet the local share market has […]

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The global economic outlook – implications for investors

Published: August 28, 2014

As we approach mid-year it’s worth reviewing the outlook for shares particularly with numerous warnings of corrections and crashes. Our view for this year has been that share market gains would be positive, but more constrained than seen in the last two years, and that volatility would increase – including the likelihood of a 10-15% […]

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The latest Ebola outbreak – implications for investors

Published: August 19, 2014

The last few weeks have seen a range of factors causing volatility in investment markets including concerns that the Fed might start to raise interest rates earlier than expected, worries about the lack of strength in Europe, Russian trade sanctions and the conflicts in Ukraine, Iraq and the Middle East. In the background have also […]

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Why I love dividends and you should too

Published: August 13, 2014

Up until the 1950s most share investors were long term investors who bought stocks for their dividend income. This changed in the 1960s as bond yields rose on the back of inflation and investors started to shift focus to capital growth. However, thanks to the volatility seen over the last decade or so, and an […]

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The medium term return potential for major assets – still constrained

Published: August 7, 2014

Most investment analysis and commentary is focused on the here and now and the implications for investment markets just a little bit ahead. But getting a handle on the return potential for major asset classes over the medium term, ie the next five years or so, is of value from several perspectives. First, such return […]

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The power of compound interest – an investor’s best friend

Published: July 17, 2014

I reckon the first wonder of the investment world is the power of compound interest. My good friend Dr Don Stammer even goes so far to refer to it as the “magic” of compound interest because it almost is magical. Compound interest can be the worst nightmare of a borrower as interest gets charged on […]

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Abenomics: good for Japan, good for investors and good for Australia

Published: July 9, 2014

It’s now over 18 months since Japan embarked on a program designed to reinvigorate its economy under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which has become known as “Abenomics”. Growth has rebounded, deflation has given way to inflation and Japanese shares are up around 70%. But is Abenomics working or are we just seeing another cyclical bounce? […]

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Share market risks

Published: June 26, 2014

As we approach mid-year it’s worth reviewing the outlook for shares particularly with numerous warnings of corrections and crashes. Our view for this year has been that share market gains would be positive, but more constrained than seen in the last two years, and that volatility would increase – including the likelihood of a 10-15% […]

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The bond rally, secular stagnation & now Iraq

Published: June 18, 2014

A big surprise this year has been the renewed rally in government bonds – both globally and in Australia. Since December 31 last year, 10 year bond yields have fallen from 3.03% to currently 2.65% in the US, from 4.24% to 3.74% in Australia and from 1.93% to 1.4% in Germany. The big question for […]

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Europe continues to reflate

Published: June 12, 2014

Since the high point of the Eurozone crisis in 2012, Europe has been steadily fading from the headlines as the risk of a break up in the Euro diminished and troubled peripheral countries started to get their public finances under control. Quite clearly the combination of various bailouts, Eurozone leaders focusing on “more Europe, not […]

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