The end is nigh, or is it? Try to turn down the noise

Published: November 13, 2014

Key points:  A combination of the blanket news coverage of economic worries, the associated information avalanche we are now exposed to and our innate fascination with crises is likely making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery and more focussed on the short term.  Investors should recognise that shares climb a wall of worry, try […]

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The end of US quantitative easing

Published: October 31, 2014

Key Points: After phasing down its quantitative easing (QE) program all year the US Fed has finally ended it. Monetary tightening still looks unlikely until mid-next year at the earliest and is contingent on further improvement in the economy and higher inflation. QE has worked – the US economy is now well into expansion mode […]

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Global currency gyrations and the Australian dollar

Published: October 15, 2014

The past month has seen a sharp fall in the value of the Australian dollar from around $US0.94 to a low of near $US0.86. While there will be short term gyrations, the broad trend in the $A likely remains down. This is part of a bigger global shift involving a stronger $US. Download pdf  Key […]

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Share market correction

Published: October 8, 2014

 Share markets have seen a bit of volatility and a pullback over the past month. This has been particularly so for Australian shares. This note looks at the key drivers and whether it’s just a correction or a new bear market. Download pdf  Drivers of recent volatility Our view for this year has been that […]

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Australian house prices – a bit too hot in parts

Published: September 25, 2014

 Introduction As the mining investment boom deflates, in order for Australia to rebalance its economy, a pick-up in demand for homes and house prices in response to lower interest rates, sending a signal to home builders to build more homes was essential. Fortunately, it’s occurred. The RBA (belatedly in my view) got rates down, home […]

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The Fed, US rates & what it means for investors

Published: September 19, 2014

Introduction The impending end of the US Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) program and when it will start to raise interest rates are looming large for investors. Very easy global monetary conditions, led by the Fed, have been a constant for the last six years helping the global recovery since the GFC. But with the […]

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Profits and the Australian economy – not bad!

Published: September 4, 2014

The slowdown in June quarter GDP growth to just 0.5% quarter on quarter, or just 2% on a US style annualised basis, against the backdrop of weak commodity prices, the end of the mining investment boom and rising unemployment may add to consternation regarding the Australian economic outlook. And yet the local share market has […]

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The global economic outlook – implications for investors

Published: August 28, 2014

As we approach mid-year it’s worth reviewing the outlook for shares particularly with numerous warnings of corrections and crashes. Our view for this year has been that share market gains would be positive, but more constrained than seen in the last two years, and that volatility would increase – including the likelihood of a 10-15% […]

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The latest Ebola outbreak – implications for investors

Published: August 19, 2014

The last few weeks have seen a range of factors causing volatility in investment markets including concerns that the Fed might start to raise interest rates earlier than expected, worries about the lack of strength in Europe, Russian trade sanctions and the conflicts in Ukraine, Iraq and the Middle East. In the background have also […]

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Why I love dividends and you should too

Published: August 13, 2014

Up until the 1950s most share investors were long term investors who bought stocks for their dividend income. This changed in the 1960s as bond yields rose on the back of inflation and investors started to shift focus to capital growth. However, thanks to the volatility seen over the last decade or so, and an […]

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