Chinese debt worries and growth

Published: February 20, 2014

China bears have always been around. At their core seems a disbelief a so called “communist” country could grow so fast. But with China now being the world’s second biggest economy and the largest contributor to global growth their concerns get a lot of airplay. Last year it seemed “ghost cities” were the big worry. […]

Read more

Why investors need to be wary of crowds

Published: February 12, 2014

Sometimes being at one with a crowd can be nice, eg at rock concerts it adds to the ambience and safety in numbers can provide comfort. However, when crowds turn they can be dangerous – you might get trampled! In fact a wariness of crowds is essential to successful investing. The Japanese bubble of the […]

Read more

The Australian dollar – still more to fall

Published: February 6, 2014

Over the last year the $A has fallen from around $US1.05 to around $US0.89 – a fall of 15%. In fact the $A is down nearly 20% from its 2011 high. The drivers of the slump have been a combination of lower commodity prices; increasing evidence that Australia is not competitive internationally; a deterioration in […]

Read more

The threat from emerging markets – how serious?

Published: January 28, 2014

Download PDF copy The past week has seen renewed concerns about the emerging world reflecting a combination of political problems in several countries including Turkey and the Ukraine, a currency devaluation in Argentina and ongoing concerns about Chinese growth. Such concerns also reflect the impact of the Fed slowing its monetary stimulus at a time […]

Read more

The risk of a correction or new bear market in shares

Published: January 23, 2014

Download PDF copy Watch video Since the height of the Eurozone public debt crisis in September/October 2011, global shares are up 58% and Australian shares are up 37%. After such strong gains an obvious issue is whether shares have got ahead of themselves, leaving them vulnerable to a fall. This note looks at the risks. […]

Read more

2014 – a list of lists

Published: January 15, 2014

Download PDF copy 2013 turned out to be a very good year for investors in well-diversified portfolios as the threats of the last few years receded and global growth prospects improved. The US did not have a fiscal crisis, the Eurozone continued to stabilise, Japan recovered, Chinese growth stabilised and Australia saw signs that low […]

Read more

The Fed tapers – what it means for investors

Published: December 19, 2013

Download PDF copy In what was perhaps the most anticipated event this year the US Federal Reserve has announced it will reduce the pace of its third quantitative easing (QE3) program by $US10bn a month. The Fed has been foreshadowing a “tapering” since May 22nd so it’s a surprise to no one. This note looks […]

Read more

Review of 2013, outlook for 2014

Published: December 11, 2013

  Watch Investment Implication video Download PDF copy 2013 – another good year for investors 2013 was notable for what did not happen: the US did not go off the fiscal cliff or default on its debt and the much feared inflation lift off failed to materialise; the euro did not fall apart despite a […]

Read more

A better 2014 for the Aust economy & profits

Published: December 4, 2013

Download PDF copy Ever since major mining investment projects, such as Olympic Dam, started to be cancelled over a year ago and it became clear the mining investment boom was coming to an end, much uncertainty has surrounded the outlook for the Australian economy. This was not helped by a mediocre initial response to interest […]

Read more

Deflation or rising inflation – what is the risk?

Published: November 28, 2013

Download PDF copy Ever since the global economy started to "recover" from the global financial crisis in 2009 a constant concern has been that all the money printing by central banks in the US, Europe and Japan will result in sharply higher inflation in developed countries. This has not happened. In fact over the last […]

Read more